Stock Market Graph
by: contact@newstracknow.comPosted on:

Weekly U.S. Stock Insight | Inflation Twist & Earnings Blitz

By Cash Sterling – July 21-25, 2025

“When prices run hotter than a dragon’s breath, be the knight who packs an ice shield—and a limit order.” — Cash Sterling

U.S. markets just booked fresh records, yet macro cross-currents are swirling faster than tweets in an election year. Let’s slice through the noise and prep your portfolio for the week ahead.

⚡ Macro-Economic Context (Stage-Setter)

Disinflation is wobbling. June CPI popped back to 2.7% after a spring slide driven by cheaper energy and steadier shelter costs (chart below). Core inflation stuck at 2.9%, still a shade above the Fed’s 2% comfort zone [1, 2, 3].

Inflation cooled through spring before re-accelerating in June

Inflation cooled through spring before re-accelerating in June

The Fed meets July 30 with futures pricing only a 5% chance of a rate cut [4]. Minutes show most officials favor patience while tariff-induced price pressures play out [4, 5]. Meanwhile, Q2 GDP estimates hover around a modest 2.4% annualized growth [6, 7].

Key Takeaways:

  • Policy is “higher for longer,” keeping real rates mildly restrictive.
  • Moderating growth plus sticky core CPI supports stock pickers over index chasers.
  • Expect elevated volatility around Fed Chair Powell’s presser and the first Q2 mega-cap earnings drops.

📊 Sector Spotlight

1. Semiconductors — Still the MVP

Generative-AI demand has chip revenue on track for 14% growth in 2025 [8, 9]. Cap-ex exceeding $185 billion should flow to equipment makers while fabless giants protect margins. Watch supply bottlenecks in HBM memory; any easing could extend the rally.

2. Defense & Aerospace — Geopolitical Tailwinds

Global military spend topped $2.4 trillion in 2024 and U.S. FY 2025 requests climb to $849 billion [10, 11]. Large primes with AI-driven weapons systems (think hypersonics and space assets) enjoy multi-year visibility. Litigation over program overruns is a lingering risk.

3. Consumer Discretionary — Cautious but Not Kaput

Real wages are positive, yet tariff anxieties and 6-month-high credit-card rates are denting big-ticket demand. Stick with brands sporting fortress balance sheets and pricing power.

🎯 Stock Analysis Deep-Dive

TickerTime HorizonThesisConviction
Tesla (TSLA)Short-term swing (2-4 weeks)Shares vaulted 10% mid-July ahead of July 23 earnings and robotaxi update. Deliveries down 13% YoY, but energy storage and FSD subscriptions could surprise to the upside. Technical breakout above $330 signals momentum; support sits at $310 [12].⭐⭐⭐⭐
Visa (V)Core long-term (12-24 mo)Q2 revenue +9%; cross-border volume +13% as travel recovers [13, 14]. Value-added services grew 22%, and a new $30 B buyback authorizes more capital return. Litigation provisions are a drag but well-reserved. Scalability and tokenization moat intact.⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Microsoft (MSFT)Core long-term (12-24 mo)Cloud revenue +20%; AI ARR > $13 B and accelerating [15]. FY Q4 earnings 7/24 will spotlight Azure margin leverage. Cash pile supports ongoing AI chip spend without stressing the balance sheet. Valuation premium justified by durable growth.⭐⭐⭐⭐

Framework Highlights

  1. Competitive Position/Moat: EV ecosystem lock-in | Four-party network | Enterprise cloud stickiness.
  2. Financial Health: Net cash positive | 97% gross margin | AAA credit.
  3. Catalysts: Robotaxi event | Cross-border rebound | Copilot upsell.
  4. Risks: China demand | DOJ antitrust | Cap-ex inflation.
  5. Mitigation: Price cuts & model refresh | Diversified revenue | Cost controls.

🖥️ Technical Chart Corner

Tesla’s July price action shows a classic ascending triangle breakout. Target measured move: $345-$350. RSI flirted with overbought, so traders can scale in around the $325 pullback with stops at $309. Earnings gap risk cuts both ways—size positions prudently.

Tesla shares gained ~10% in mid-July ahead of Q2 earnings, breaking past $330 resistance

Tesla shares gained ~10% in mid-July ahead of Q2 earnings, breaking past $330 resistance

🔍 Contrarian Take

Consensus screams “AI chips forever.” Here’s the hedge: if hyperscalers keep designing custom ASICs, commodity GPU demand could cool faster than Wall Street models. Equipment names priced for perfection (trailing P/E > 40) might wobble on any cap-ex pause. A small put spread on the SOX index into August could insure AI-heavy portfolios.

💬 Reader Engagement Zone

Q1: “Cash, is 2.7% CPI the start of a new inflation up-trend?”
A: Not yet. Energy and tariffs nudged June higher, but shelter deceleration caps upside. Watch core services ex-shelter in July data for confirmation [16, 17].

Q2: “Why not pick a cheaper fintech over Visa?”
A: Scale delivers network effects and pricing power. Visa’s 54% net margin funds relentless R&D—most challengers bleed cash18.

Q3: “Should I chase Tesla’s breakout?”
A: Only with risk controls. Use a tiered entry: 50% at $325, 25% at $318, remainder above $335 if volume confirms. Trim ahead of earnings gamma fireworks.

📅 Week Ahead Preview

  • Earnings: Tesla 7/23, Microsoft 7/24, Visa 7/29 preview.
  • Data: Flash PMI 7/24 (watch services hiring), Fed rate decision + Powell presser 7/30.
  • Events: Jackson Hole agenda leak rumors may stir rate-cut chatter.

🚀 Call-to-Action

Like the insight? Smash that share button, drop your hottest trade idea in the comments, and bookmark us. Hit subscribe so Cash Sterling rides shotgun on your capital-compounding journey every week.

Stay sharp, stay humble, and may your stops be tight.

  1. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
  2. https://www.realtor.com/research/cpi-inflation-june-2025/
  3. https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:470324:0-us-cpi-rises-0-3-in-june-the-largest-increase-in-five-months/
  4. https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-minutes-show-narrow-support-rate-cut-later-this-month-2025-07-09/
  5. https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decis
  6. https://www.investing.com/analysis/us-gdp-still-on-track-to-rebound-in-q2-200661851
  7. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/07/q2-gdp-tracking-mid-to-high-2s.html
  8. https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/Industries/tmt/articles/2025-global-semiconductor-industry-outlook.html
  9. https://electronics360.globalspec.com/article/21631/ai-boosts-chip-revenue-to-new-heights-in-2025
  10. https://www.investing.com/analysis/3-defense-leaders-set-to-gain-from-rising-military-spend-200663286
  11. https://www.benzinga.com/content/46266086/3-defense-leaders-set-to-gain-from-rising-military-spend
  12. https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/history/
  13. https://fortune.com/company-assets/689/quartr/earnings-release-8-k-87341-2025-04-29-08-04-08.pdf
  14. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2814418/visa-inc-v-q2-2025-earnings-call-highlights-strong-revenue-growth-and-strategic-expansions
  15. https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2025-q3/press-release-webcast
  16. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-price-index-cpi
  17. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
  18. https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/corporates/visa-registers-9-revenue-growth-q2-fiscal-2025-1133426
  19. https://www.investopedia.com/will-the-fed-lower-interest-rates-in-july-policymakers-are-split-fomc-minutes-show-11769229
  20. https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2025/07/08/what-to-expect-from-the-feds-july-interest-rate-decision/
  21. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/q2-gdp-tracking-back-to-growth-wide.html
  22. https://www.morningstar.com/markets/forecasts-q2-gdp-report-show-healthy-slowing-economy
  23. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-the-fed-may-cut-rates-earlier-than-expected
  24. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/review-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-data-june-2025-july-faisal-amjad-g0ocf
  25. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/q2-gdp-tracking-low-to-mid-2.html
  26. https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/united-states/news/monetary-policy/fed-hikes-rates-as-expected-in-july/
  27. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/07/q2-gdp-tracking-moving-on-down.html
  28. https://youngandtheinvested.com/june-2025-cpi-inflation/
  29. https://equalsmoney.com/economic-calendar/events/fed-interest-rate-decision
  30. https://pepperstone.com/en/analysis/navigating-markets/apple-q3-2025-earnings-preview/
  31. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2971445/tesla-q2-earnings-preview-what-to-expect-from-upcoming-report
  32. https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/microsoft-fiscal-q4-earnings-snapshot-19607517.php
  33. https://www.macrumors.com/2025/07/03/apple-q3-fy-2025-earnings-call/
  34. https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/Tesla-Q2-2025-earnings-preview-250715
  35. https://www.aol.com/finance/microsoft-report-fiscal-q4-earnings-205805723.html?guccounter=1
  36. https://www.ainvest.com/news/visa-report-q3-2025-earnings-july-29-2507/
  37. https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
  38. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-q2-earnings-likely-focus-152144244.html
  39. https://www.synyega.com/insights/microsoft-financial-results-fy24
  40. https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/brokers-issue-forecasts-for-visas-q3-earnings-nysev-2025-05-02/
  41. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/analysis/
  42. https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20250702787309/tesla-second-quarter-2025-production-deliveries-deployments
  43. https://www.trefis.com/stock/v/articles/569287/how-will-visa-stock-react-to-its-upcoming-earnings-2/2025-07-14
  44. https://9to5mac.com/2025/07/03/apple-to-release-q3-2025-earnings-results-on-thursday-july-31/?extended-comments=1
  45. https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-second-quarter-2025-production-deliveries-deployments
  46. https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2025-q2/press-release-webcast
  47. https://qz.com/visa-inc-v-reports-earnings-1851752308
  48. https://www.infosys.com/iki/research/semiconductor-industry-outlook2025.html
  49. https://www.bv.com/en-US/perspectives/ira-renewables-impact-at-a-glance
  50. https://bookmap.com/blog/investing-in-defense-stocks-what-traders-should-know-in-2025
  51. https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2025/05/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-impact-on-clean-energy-tax-credits
  52. https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/technology/technology-media-telecom-outlooks/semiconductor-industry-outlook.html
  53. https://business.edf.org/wp-content/blogs.dir/90/files/EDF-IRA-Renewable-Energy-Activation-Guide.pdf
  54. https://kpmg.com/kpmg-us/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2025/global-semiconductor-industry-outlook-2025.pdf
  55. https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocknews:2d64c72ed094b:0-3-defense-stocks-benefiting-from-increased-military-spending/
  56. https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/5-ways-to-mitigate-challenges-to-the-5953481/
  57. https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/news/surge-in-demand-for-semiconductors-in-2025-driven-by-boom-of-generative-ai
  58. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buy-5-aerospace-defense-stocks-115700076.html
  59. https://www.sidley.com/en/insights/newsupdates/2025/07/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-navigating-the-new-energy-landscape
  60. https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/up-and-coming-stocks-to-buy-in-2025
  61. https://sustainablebrands.com/read/business-guide-ira-tax-credits
  62. https://www.econotimes.com/AI-Boom-Fuels-10-Growth-in-Semiconductor-Market-for-2025-but-Challenges-Remain-1704415
  63. https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/best-defense-stocks-to-buy-now
  64. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/wall-st-week-ahead-industrial-sectors-gains-be-tested-earnings-ramp-up-2025-07-18/
  65. https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202507035430/nasdaq-composite-rises-162-this-week-to-2060110-data-talk
  66. https://www.macrumors.com/2025/07/04/iphone-sales-finally-bounce-back-in-china/
  67. https://www.ainvest.com/news/visa-q2-2025-unpacking-contradictions-cross-border-business-incentives-growth-revenue-dynamics-2505/
  68. https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-s-p-500-and-nasdaq-poised-for-more-records-as-data-earnings-reassure-investors
  69. https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202507187104/nasdaq-composite-rises-151-this-week-to-2089566-data-talk
  70. https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock
  71. https://thetechportal.com/2025/07/04/apple-iphone-sales-climb-in-china-ending-two-year-slump/
  72. https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/equity/us-equity/sp-sectors/
  73. https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202507116860/nasdaq-composite-falls-008-this-week-to-2058553-data-talk
  74. https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TSLA/forecast/
  75. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2959790/apple-gains-ground-in-china-iphone-sales-rise-for-first-time-in-two-years
  76. https://paymentexpert.com/2025/05/01/visa-q2-2025-earnings-cross-border-growth/
  77. https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2025/07/this-week-in-earnings-25q2-july-18-2025/
  78. https://www.stl.news/wall-street-wrap-up-markets-steady-july-18-2025/
  79. https://tradingeconomics.com/tsla:us
  80. https://www.cryptopolitan.com/apples-china-iphone-sales-grow-in-q2/
  81. https://inflationdata.com/articles/2025/03/13/bls-february-2025-inflation-down/
  82. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi/news/454723
  83. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi/news/458619
  84. https://www.financialexpress.com/business/investing-abroad-us-cpi-data-for-may-released-annual-inflation-rate-accelerated-for-the-first-time-in-four-months-3876280/
  85. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/12/cpi-inflation-report-february-2025.html
  86. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi/news/451213
  87. https://business.fau.edu/images/business/monthly-inflation-report/files/Monthly%20Inflation%20Report%20-%20March%202025.pdf
  88. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi/news/462250
  89. https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2025/06/12/us-inflation-rises-modestly-in-may-fueling-political-pressures-on-fed
  90. https://business.fau.edu/images/business/monthly-inflation-report/files/Monthly%20Inflation%20Report%20-%20February%202025.pdf
  91. https://www.pnc.com/content/dam/es/pnc-com/pdf/aboutpnc/EconomicReports/EconomicUpdates/2025/PNC_EconomicUpdate_CPI_041025-2.pdf
  92. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi/news/458570
  93. https://economictimes.com/news/international/global-trends/us-inflation-edges-up-in-may-to-2-4-as-trump-tariffs-flow-through-economy/articleshow/121779850.cms
  94. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
  95. https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-february-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2025-3
  96. https://www.realtor.com/research/cpi-inflation-april-2025/
  97. https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/united-states/news/inflation/united-states-consumer-prices-11-06-2025-inflation-rises-in-may-but-undershoots-expectations/

Discover more from Newstrack Now

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Leave a Reply